February 2023 Goals
SAFS
monthly goals
daily snapshots
Monthly Goals
- Review the Population Dynamics section of the Punt Student reading list
- End of month review: I created a table of the papers in this list and divided the papers into their respective subthemes.
- Prepare the second draft of the Proposal Presentation for my General Exam
- End of month review: Produced a second draft of the outline
- End of month review: Produced a less tangible but just as important mental third draft of the Ch. 3 section of the Power Point
- Write code to implement a linear ramp for the phasing in harvest control rule for Ch. 1
- End of month review: Overcame major point of confusion. Code is implemented, just need to run comparisons to see how it performs.
Daily Snapshots
28 February 2023
- Started building horrendacharts to summarize my current understanding of ensemble modeling
- This will become the bulk of the updates in understanding I will feature in my Ch. 3 section of General Exam slide deck
27 February 2023
- Reading Dormann et al. 2018
- Finished thumbing through the methods for estimating model weights
- Started writing more detailed answers to questions outlined on 21 Feb 23
- Wrestled with the idea that I was using ensemble modelling and model averaging as interchangeable terms. They really aren’t.
24 February 2023
- met with weekly accountability group to conduct a retrospective for this week’s work and to establish priorities for next week’s work
- attended Quantitative Seminar
- reading Dormann et al. 2018
- waist deep in techniques for estimating model weights, no waders
- I’d like to finish with this paper over the weekend
23 February 2023
- Reading Dormann et al. 2018
- Drew the conceptual figure below to digest what I read yesterday
- Outlined what estimating uncertainty in model-averaged predictions looks like for tactical (e.g., machine learning), frequentist, and Bayesian approaches to model averaging. Needs more digestion though.
- Will need more time with methods for estimating model weights tomorrow, too.
22 February 2023
- Reading Dormann et al. 2018 to continue mapping out the answers to the questions I posed yesterday
- Looks like I was able to deep dive into the first 6 pages or so: mostly the math behind model averaging and the review of “known properties” of model averaging and quantifying uncertainty
- Tomorrow is going to be all about methods for estimating model weights
21 February 2023
- attended Think Tank
- Reviewed Ch. 3 methodology, preparing answers to these questions (I mostly wrote these):
- Describe what I mean by ensemble modelling
- What are the various approaches to ensemble modelling?
- What are the outcomes for each ensemble modelling method? What do these outcomes mean in the context of model uncertainty?
- Which ensemble modelling approach is most appropriate for climate models given uncertainty in model structure, initial conditions, and RCP scenarios?
- What do I mean by “single climate model” in my proposed methods?
- Does the definition of “single climate model” that I use impact model misspecification? In what ways?
- What ARE the consequences of model misspecification associated with selecting a “single climate model” for assessments and forecasts? (since I am trying to mitigate those consequences)
- What are the disadvantages of the “single assessment model paradigm” vs. avantages of ensemble models?
- How will I even KNOW that the benefits of ensemble modelling outweight the disadvantages posed by ensemble modelling?
- What are the “signs” I should look for in my performance metrics?
- What are the management objectives that these metrics are measuring? How much influence does the management objective design have on the performance of the ensemble modelling methods?
20 February 2023
- Created a schedule for the rest of the WIN quarter for meeting my Monthly goals
- Technically a UW holiday today–but did quite a bit to set up to hit the ground running tomorrow
16 February 2023
- Met with AEP to discuss my Ch. 1 question
- Now I will use the average catch for the five previous years to “initialize” the ABC I need from the last management period
15 February 2023
- ran 1 simulation using status quo harvest control rule, run 1 simulation using phase-in HCR
- created table in Excel comparing the ABCs for each harvest control rule
- total catch should be the same
- how that total catch is distributed should change–did the catch linearly increase or decrease when using phase-in? If yes, good!
- discovered a new question/problem for tomorrow: what is the best way to simulate the ABC from the last management period…for the first simulated management period.
- tomorrow, I’ll just have a status quo assessment go first and then have the phase-in HCR turn on for the next assessment.
- tackled so many email demons today (so many)
14 February 2023
- participated in weekly accountability group writing/coding session (Chapter 1)
- revised Ch. 1 phase-in harvest control rule protocol for implementation into ratpackmse software
- implemented new protocol into ratpackmse
Happy Valentine’s Day
Image from an Etsy Shop, no affiliation
13 February 2023
- travel day (~3 hours waiting for a gate at SEATAC, what a time to be alive)
- studied for General Exam (Population Dynamics section)
- added Masters research summary pages to personal website
- added Towards best practices in selex paper to personal website
10 February 2023
- met with weekly accountability group to conduct a retrospective for this week’s work and to establish priorities for next week’s work
- created a quarto version of my personal website
- created a research notebook section of the website
- inspired by Steven Roberts’s lab practices (particularly the work of Chris Mantegna and Sarah Tanja)