February 2023 Goals

monthly goals
daily snapshots

Kristin Privitera-Johnson


February 10, 2023

Monthly Goals

  • Review the Population Dynamics section of the Punt Student reading list
    • End of month review: I created a table of the papers in this list and divided the papers into their respective subthemes.
  • Prepare the second draft of the Proposal Presentation for my General Exam
    • End of month review: Produced a second draft of the outline
    • End of month review: Produced a less tangible but just as important mental third draft of the Ch. 3 section of the Power Point
  • Write code to implement a linear ramp for the phasing in harvest control rule for Ch. 1
    • End of month review: Overcame major point of confusion. Code is implemented, just need to run comparisons to see how it performs.

Daily Snapshots

28 February 2023

  • Started building horrendacharts to summarize my current understanding of ensemble modeling
  • This will become the bulk of the updates in understanding I will feature in my Ch. 3 section of General Exam slide deck

Working through the definitions of various steps in ensemble modelling. Combining descriptions of these methods across papers. Summary from Dormann et al. 2018.

27 February 2023

  • Reading Dormann et al. 2018
  • Finished thumbing through the methods for estimating model weights
  • Started writing more detailed answers to questions outlined on 21 Feb 23
  • Wrestled with the idea that I was using ensemble modelling and model averaging as interchangeable terms. They really aren’t.

24 February 2023

  • met with weekly accountability group to conduct a retrospective for this week’s work and to establish priorities for next week’s work
  • attended Quantitative Seminar
  • reading Dormann et al. 2018
    • waist deep in techniques for estimating model weights, no waders
    • I’d like to finish with this paper over the weekend

23 February 2023

  • Reading Dormann et al. 2018
  • Drew the conceptual figure below to digest what I read yesterday
  • Outlined what estimating uncertainty in model-averaged predictions looks like for tactical (e.g., machine learning), frequentist, and Bayesian approaches to model averaging. Needs more digestion though.
  • Will need more time with methods for estimating model weights tomorrow, too.

A snapshot my current thoughts about the ‘usefulness’ of model averaging.

22 February 2023

  • Reading Dormann et al. 2018 to continue mapping out the answers to the questions I posed yesterday
    • Looks like I was able to deep dive into the first 6 pages or so: mostly the math behind model averaging and the review of “known properties” of model averaging and quantifying uncertainty
    • Tomorrow is going to be all about methods for estimating model weights

21 February 2023

  • attended Think Tank
  • Reviewed Ch. 3 methodology, preparing answers to these questions (I mostly wrote these):
    • Describe what I mean by ensemble modelling
    • What are the various approaches to ensemble modelling?
    • What are the outcomes for each ensemble modelling method? What do these outcomes mean in the context of model uncertainty?
    • Which ensemble modelling approach is most appropriate for climate models given uncertainty in model structure, initial conditions, and RCP scenarios?
    • What do I mean by “single climate model” in my proposed methods?
    • Does the definition of “single climate model” that I use impact model misspecification? In what ways?
    • What ARE the consequences of model misspecification associated with selecting a “single climate model” for assessments and forecasts? (since I am trying to mitigate those consequences)
      • What are the disadvantages of the “single assessment model paradigm” vs. avantages of ensemble models?
      • How will I even KNOW that the benefits of ensemble modelling outweight the disadvantages posed by ensemble modelling?
      • What are the “signs” I should look for in my performance metrics?
      • What are the management objectives that these metrics are measuring? How much influence does the management objective design have on the performance of the ensemble modelling methods?

20 February 2023

  • Created a schedule for the rest of the WIN quarter for meeting my Monthly goals
  • Technically a UW holiday today–but did quite a bit to set up to hit the ground running tomorrow

16 February 2023

  • Met with AEP to discuss my Ch. 1 question
  • Now I will use the average catch for the five previous years to “initialize” the ABC I need from the last management period

15 February 2023

  • ran 1 simulation using status quo harvest control rule, run 1 simulation using phase-in HCR
  • created table in Excel comparing the ABCs for each harvest control rule
    • total catch should be the same
    • how that total catch is distributed should change–did the catch linearly increase or decrease when using phase-in? If yes, good!
  • discovered a new question/problem for tomorrow: what is the best way to simulate the ABC from the last management period…for the first simulated management period.
    • tomorrow, I’ll just have a status quo assessment go first and then have the phase-in HCR turn on for the next assessment.
  • tackled so many email demons today (so many)

14 February 2023

  • participated in weekly accountability group writing/coding session (Chapter 1)
  • revised Ch. 1 phase-in harvest control rule protocol for implementation into ratpackmse software
  • implemented new protocol into ratpackmse

Happy Valentine’s Day

Image from an Etsy Shop, no affiliation

13 February 2023

  • travel day (~3 hours waiting for a gate at SEATAC, what a time to be alive)
  • studied for General Exam (Population Dynamics section)
  • added Masters research summary pages to personal website
  • added Towards best practices in selex paper to personal website

10 February 2023

  • met with weekly accountability group to conduct a retrospective for this week’s work and to establish priorities for next week’s work
  • created a quarto version of my personal website
  • created a research notebook section of the website